CJ 605 Spring 04 Advanced Statistics in Criminal Justice:
Sequence of Topics and Readings

DATE OF LAST UPDATE: 1/24/04

Sequence
The sequence of topics and readings, as best as I can predict them at this point, appear below. All of this is subject to change depending upon numerous factors, including el Nino. The readings and assignments are for the week they are DUE.

You will see that next to each reading are some codes.

CD =  on a CD that will be distributed. These are usually PDf or htm files.
W = available as a linked file directly off the website. Click and it will ask you to download. Then fire up Adobe Acrobat Reader

For the main texts:
R&B = Raudenbush and Bryk
RBCC=Raudenbush, Bryk, Cheong and Congdon

For the recommended texts:
K&DL = Kreft and deLeeuw
S&B = Snijders and Bosker

Class Date

Topics / Readings  DUE on this week

1/26

Current issues in neighborhood effects; neighborhood effects and health effects; how to create an aggregate file in SPSS and conduct your own contextual analysis;  audit functions in secondary data analysis; 
READ BEFORE THE FIRST CLASS MEETING and try to answer some of the questions:

  1. Sampson et al. (2002) Assessing neighborhood effects (W)

  2. Morenoff (2003)  (W)

  3. Arnold, C. L. (1992). "An Introduction to hierarchical linear models." Measurement and Evaluation in Counseling and Development 25: 58-90. (You want to get on Academic Search Premier and print out this article)

  4. HLML00CC.PDF (W) - please read over regression examples carefully; answer questions in the text

  5. R&B: 1 - 10

QUESTIONS to consider while you read
Your assignment  for next week

2/2

Review of aggregation procedure and results; understanding the aggregation problem; theoretical and statistical implications; statistical power questions
HLM SUBMODEL 1:  the one-way anova via HLM; steps to creating the HLM file; interpreting output

READ

  1. Thorndike, G. L. (1939) (CD)
  2. Liska, A. E. (1990) (CD)
  3.  Sampson (2003) "The neighborhood context of wellbeing" (CD)
  4. R&B: 16-24;38-41; 69-72 
  5. HLML01.PDF (W)
  6. RBCC 1-49
  7. RECOMMENDED: K&DL 22-29; S&B 6-16

QUESTIONS to consider while you read
Your assignment for next week

2/09

HLM SUBMODEL 1: One-way ANOVA with random effects ROUND 2: intraclass correlation; the statistical test; t hinking about local sentiment

READ:

  1. Sampson (2002) "Transcending tradition" (CD)

  2. Sampson (2002) "Studying Modern Chicago" (CD)

  3. Covington and Taylor (1991) (CD)
     

RECOMMENDED:

  1. K&DL: 9-10

  2. S&B: 16-18; 45-47

  3. Shinn and Toohey (2003) (CD)

QUESTIONS to consider while you read
Your assignment for next week

2/16

HLM SUBMODEL 2: One-way ANCOVA with random effects; more thoughts about collective efficacy and reactions to crime and local commitment

READ

  1. R&B: 25-26

  2. Taylor et al. (1985) (CD)

  3. Duncan et al. (2003) (read only THROUGH p. 249) (CD)

  4. HLML02BB (W)

  5. HLML03BB (W)

  6. HLML04DD (W)

RECOMMENDED: K&DL, 30-32

QUESTIONS to consider while you read
Your assignment for next week 

2/23

HLM SUBMODEL 2: One-way ANCOVA with random effects: ROUND 2
Background on Social Capital and Fear of Crime; Crime and Mental Health

READ:

  1. Arnold (1992) (CD)
  2. Gibson et al. ( 2002) "Social integration, individual perceptions..." (CD)
  3. Taylor (2002) "Response to Gibson et al." (CD)

QUESTIONS to consider while you read
Your assignment for next week   

3/1

HLM SUBMODEL 3: Random coefficients regression model
Short, in-class quiz
3/8 Daytona Beach Spring Break

There IS an assignment for next week! - BUT see memo of 3/12/04

3/15

HLM SUBMODEL 4: Means as outcomes regression: adding only L2 predictors
READ:

  1. HLML05CC

  2. Sampson, R. J., and Bartusch, D. J. (CD)

  3. R&B: 99-107

RECOMMENDED: Duncan and Raudenbush (1999) (CD)

QUESTIONS to consider while you read
Your assignment for next week   

3/22

SOME ISSUES: Centering at Level 1 & 2; Intraclass correlation
HLM FULL MODEL: Intercepts and Slopes as Outcomes (IASAO); what does it mean to predict varying slopes?

READ:

  1. Robinson, Lawton, Taylor and Perkins (W)

  2. Duncan et al (2003) (CD) FINISH

QUESTIONS to consider while you read
Your assignment for next week   

3/29

The general probability model: Binary and count outcomes

READ:
  1. HLML015
  2. Rountree and Land (1996) Social Forces (CD)
  3. R&B: 291-317

QUESTIONS to consider while you read
Your assignment for next week   

4/5

More on the full model: Conceptual and empirical questions: Varying slopes at LI; predicting LI slopes with LII variables. What does this mean?

READ:

  1. Wilcox and Clayton (2001) (CD)
  2. Sampson, Raudenbush and Earls (1997)

QUESTIONS to consider while you read
Your assignment for next week   

4/12

Residuals: Doing Diagnostics; Variables in the file; Plots you want to generate;

Read:

  1. R&B: 132-134; 252-283

  2. HLML09BB

  3. HLML10BB

  4. Sampson, R. J., Morenoff, J., and Earls, F. (1999) (CD)

QUESTIONS to consider while you read
Your assignment for next week   

4/19

Changes over time; implications for evaluation

READ:

  1. HLML06BB (W)

  2. R&B: 160-200

  3. Austin et al. (2002 (CD)

Recommended:  Osgood W, Smith G (1995) Applying hierarchical linear modeling to extended longitudinal evaluations: The Boys Town follow-up study. Evaluation Review 19:3-28; Raudenbush (2001) Annual Review of Psychology (CD)

4/26

If we get time:

A host of last minute items: meta analysis via HLM; weighting; multiparameter tests

  1. HLM12BB

  2. HLM14BB

PRESENTATIONS OF PAPERS

5/3

PRESENTATIONS OF PAPERS; REVIEW

LAST DAY OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED CLASSES: 5/3

5/10

5/10 Final, in-class exam; final papers due

Final Examination Period: ; final version of paper due